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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DAL
49.3%
HOU
50.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.118 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.186 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DAL

Travis Frederick C Out Illness
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Terrance Williams WR Out Not Injury Related
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Ankle
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Antwaun Woods DT Questionable Calf

HOU

Aaron Colvin CB Out Ankle
Brian Peters LB Out Ankle
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Lamar Miller RB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 16
–
HOU 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 FG DAL (10:06) 2-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 03:13 FG DAL (3:13) 2-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 13:45 TD HOU (13:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – HOU 6
  • Q2 06:03 FG HOU (6:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. DAL 6 – HOU 10
  • Q3 11:57 TD DAL (11:57) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 17-A.Hurns for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – HOU 10
  • Q3 05:05 FG HOU (5:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. DAL 13 – HOU 13
  • Q4 08:34 FG HOU (8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. DAL 13 – HOU 16
  • Q4 05:43 FG DAL (5:43) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 16 – HOU 16
  • Q5 01:55 FG HOU (1:55) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. DAL 16 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (10:06) 2-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 78%

    (5:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%

    (3:13) 2-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:07) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to HOU 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (6:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 54%

    (2:00) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at DAL 2 for -1 yards (54-J.Smith).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:37) 8-T.Daniel punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (5:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:42) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to HOU 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 13 yards (38-J.Heath; 48-J.Thomas).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:09) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to DAL 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Austin to DAL 15 for no gain (5-J.Webb).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:41) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to HOU 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 40 for 16 yards (87-G.Swaim; 55-L.Vander Esch).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.05 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%

    (5:43) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:40) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Austin to DAL 45 for 22 yards (23-J.Bademosi).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:49) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-5-J.Webb, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20.