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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.22 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model