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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at DAL 2 for -1 yards (54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +4.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model