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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP