Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Houston Texans 13

(2:42) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to HOU 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 13 yards (38-J.Heath; 48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model