Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Houston Texans 13

(13:41) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to HOU 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 40 for 16 yards (87-G.Swaim; 55-L.Vander Esch).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.40 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model