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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 30

Houston Texans 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model