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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 83

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 3-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to NYJ 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 41 for 7 yards (40-K.Bierria).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 41, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model