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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN
48.1%
NYJ
51.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.207 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.066 vs Case Keenum (DEN) -0.022 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DEN

Jared Veldheer T Out Knee
Marquette King P Doubtful right Thigh
Todd Davis LB Questionable Shoulder
Adam Gotsis DE Questionable Knee

NYJ

Trumaine Johnson CB Out Quadricep
Charone Peake WR Out Hamstring
Neal Sterling TE Out Concussion
Marcus Maye S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 16
–
NYJ 34

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 TD DEN (9:26) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 13:59 TD NYJ (13:59) 20-I.Crowell left end for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 10:57 TD NYJ (10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 04:01 FG DEN (4:01) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. DEN 10 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 01:17 TD NYJ (1:17) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – NYJ 20
  • Q3 04:56 FG NYJ (4:56) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. DEN 10 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 13:02 FG NYJ (13:02) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. DEN 10 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 05:15 TD NYJ (5:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 16-T.Pryor for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [48-S.Barrett]. DEN 10 – NYJ 33
  • Q4 03:27 TD DEN (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 88-De.Thomas for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-F.Luvu]. DEN 16 – NYJ 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 35%

    (11:32) 3-C.Wadman punts 29 yards to NYJ 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:12) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 43%

    (14:06) 3-C.Wadman punts 20 yards to NYJ 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to NYJ 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:17) 3-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to NYJ 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 41 for 7 yards (40-K.Bierria).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-A.Jones to DEN 14 for 1 yard (40-T.Cannon).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (4:01) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:31) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to NYJ 4, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 7 for 3 yards (35-Dy.Thomas). PENALTY on NYJ-36-D.Middleton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at NYJ 7.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 17 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 28%

    (11:34) 3-C.Wadman punts 34 yards to NYJ 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 40-T.Cannon. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 11:26.)

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (4:56) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:44) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to NYJ 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 35 for 10 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 24%

    (1:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to DEN 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:07) 3-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to NYJ 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to DEN 11 for 51 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%

    (13:02) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 10-E.Sanders (21-M.Claiborne).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 38%

    (2:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.