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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 12

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model