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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 54

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(:31) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to NYJ 4, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 7 for 3 yards (35-Dy.Thomas). PENALTY on NYJ-36-D.Middleton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at NYJ 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.28 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model