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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 46

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 3-C.Wadman punts 29 yards to NYJ 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model