Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to NYJ 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 35 for 10 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model