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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 51

New York Jets 24 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to DEN 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP