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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 95

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(:07) 3-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to NYJ 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-A.Roberts to DEN 11 for 51 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.76 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth -0.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 95, worth -5.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model