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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 6

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 10-E.Sanders (21-M.Claiborne).

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.99 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model