Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 88

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to NE 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-J.Edelman to NE 47 for 10 yards (45-R.Hewitt). PENALTY on NE-27-J.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.37 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model