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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Thursday 2018-10-04 · 20:20 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

IND
31.3%
NE
68.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.155 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.117 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Jack Doyle TE Out Hip
Denzelle Good T Out Not Injury Related
T.Y. Hilton WR Out Chest
Kenny Moore CB Out Concussion
Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Calf
Quincy Wilson CB Out Concussion
Marlon Mack RB Out Hamstring
Anthony Castonzo T Questionable Hamstring
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Ankle
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Hand
Darius Leonard LB Questionable Ankle
Adam Vinatieri K Questionable right Groin

NE

Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Adam Butler DT Questionable Knee
Josh Gordon WR Questionable Hamstring
Geneo Grissom DE Questionable Ankle
Jacob Hollister TE Questionable Chest
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Calf
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 24
–
NE 38

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:03 TD NE (9:03) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 12:16 TD NE (12:16) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 08:54 FG IND (8:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – NE 14
  • Q2 01:37 TD NE (1:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NE 20
  • Q2 00:17 FG NE (:17) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. IND 3 – NE 24
  • Q3 09:53 TD IND (9:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – NE 24
  • Q4 12:52 TD IND (12:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 86-E.Swoope for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – NE 24
  • Q4 09:28 TD NE (9:28) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 500th career TD pass, 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 71st different career TD target, new NFL record (Testaverde 70). IND 17 – NE 30
  • Q4 07:15 TD NE (7:15) (Shotgun) 26-S.Michel left guard for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – NE 37
  • Q4 01:14 TD IND (1:14) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 10-second runoff before play. IND 23 – NE 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:27) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to NE 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at IND 49 for 15 yards (52-N.Goode).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 41%

    (6:16) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to IND 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (1:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 4-Vinatieri 673rd career FGA, passes G.Anderson for 2nd all-time (M. Andersen 709).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%

    (8:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:03) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for 5 yards (50-N.Grigsby).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 20 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:35) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to NE 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-J.Edelman to NE 47 for 10 yards (45-R.Hewitt). PENALTY on NE-27-J.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 42.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 81%

    (:17) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 25%

    (12:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to NE 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:57) 6-R.Allen punts 59 yards to IND 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to NE 35 for 33 yards (36-B.King; 46-J.Develin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 21-N.Hines to NE 49 for 7 yards (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 11-R.Grant to NE 24 for 10 yards (23-P.Chung).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 85-E.Ebron [94-A.Clayborn].

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:09) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to IND 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.