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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 27

New England Patriots 21 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:17) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.92 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model