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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 91

New England Patriots 24 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 6-R.Allen punts 59 yards to IND 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to NE 35 for 33 yards (36-B.King; 46-J.Develin).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP