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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(7:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 21-N.Hines to NE 49 for 7 yards (32-D.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model