Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 79

New England Patriots 38 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(3:09) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to IND 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model