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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 44

New England Patriots 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to IND 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.59 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model