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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 4, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP