4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-2 HC Doug Marrone
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

JAX
29.0%
KC
71.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.424 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) +0.169 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22 15–29
–
KC 28 21–35
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

JAX

Leonard Fournette RB Out Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Out Toe
Tre Herndon CB Questionable Hamstring

KC

Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel
Armani Watts S Questionable Groin
Dee Ford LB Questionable Groin
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 14
–
KC 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:44 TD KC (6:44) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. JAX 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 13:33 FG KC (13:33) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 0 – KC 10
  • Q2 02:00 FG KC (2:00) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 01:56 TD KC (1:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 24-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 95-C.Jones at JAX 20. 95-C.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-78-J.Parnell, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs. JAX 0 – KC 19
  • Q3 05:30 FG KC (5:30) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 0 – KC 23
  • Q3 03:15 TD JAX (3:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – KC 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD KC (15:00) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – KC 29
  • Q4 05:56 TD JAX (5:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 13 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to KC 27, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 16 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 60%

    (4:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 25 yards to KC 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 14 for 2 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (13:33) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins (25-A.Watts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (11:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to KC 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (5:30) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (13:41) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to KC 35 for 11 yards (48-Te.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 30%

    (8:56) 5-B.Bortles up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (53-A.Hitchens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 89%

    (5:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 84-K.Cole to KC 2 for 9 yards (24-J.Lucas; 23-K.Fuller).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 63 yards to JAX 3, Center-41-J.Winchester. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 9 for 6 yards (26-Dam. Williams).

    See the full breakdown →