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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins (25-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO +3.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model