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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to KC 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model