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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model