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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 5-B.Bortles up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (53-A.Hitchens).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.67 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model