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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model