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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 25 yards to KC 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 14 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.33 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model