4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 3-C.Santos 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.24 EP