Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to LA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.000 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.245 EPA/dropback
- LA on 3 more days rest than SEA
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
LA
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:32 TD SEA (4:32) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SEA 6
- Q1 02:03 TD LA (2:03) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SEA 7
- Q2 11:16 FG LA (11:16) 3-C.Santos 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – SEA 7
- Q2 09:19 TD SEA (9:19) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – SEA 13
- Q2 06:08 TD LA (6:08) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – SEA 14
- Q2 02:00 FG SEA (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 17 – SEA 17
- Q3 10:43 TD SEA (10:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 83-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LA 17 – SEA 23
- Q3 05:08 TD LA (5:08) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – SEA 24
- Q3 01:41 TD SEA (1:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 24 – SEA 30
- Q4 14:57 TD LA (14:57) 30-T.Gurley left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – SEA 31
- Q4 06:09 FG LA (6:09) 3-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 33 – SEA 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 49%
(13:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 14 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 5 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 41-M.Christian to SEA 12 for 11 yards (59-J.Martin). Punt was deflected by LA 58 Littleton
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 49%
(14:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.24 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(11:16) 3-C.Santos 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%
(2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(10:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-R.Woods.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 89%
(6:09) 3-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 58 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(1:39) 16-J.Goff up the middle to LA 44 for 2 yards (51-B.Mingo).
See the full breakdown →
