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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 3-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model