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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP