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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP