Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- CIN offense: -0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- MIA defense: -0.006 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
MIA
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 07:28 TD MIA (7:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 32-K.Drake for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CIN 0
- Q2 00:40 TD MIA (:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – CIN 0
- Q3 09:30 FG MIA (9:30) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 17 – CIN 0
- Q3 05:12 FG CIN (5:12) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 17 – CIN 3
- Q4 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 28-J.Mixon for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Harris]. MIA 17 – CIN 9
- Q4 11:51 TD CIN (11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – CIN 16
- Q4 03:33 FG CIN (3:33) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 17 – CIN 20
- Q4 02:46 TD CIN (2:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for 0 yards (96-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (96-C.Dunlap) [96-C.Dunlap], RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at MIA 19. 94-S.Hubbard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-70-J.James, Offensive Holding, declined. MIA 17 – CIN 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(11:43) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to CIN 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:00) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CIN 15.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-40-B.Wilson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 19Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 91%
(3:58) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Illegal Formation, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 48%
(1:21) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to CIN 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 19 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(12:58) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant to MIA 48 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%
(9:30) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%
(5:12) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 70%
(3:35) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to CIN 8, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 14 for 6 yards (38-B.Bolden). PENALTY on MIA-53-M.Spaight, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 14.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:40) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to CIN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 36 for 13 yards (92-J.Denney; 55-J.Baker).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(3:33) 4-R.Bullock 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:43) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 45 for 14 yards (81-T.Kroft).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 42 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%
(:02) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake right guard to CIN 17 for 25 yards (59-N.Vigil).
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