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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to CIN 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.03 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP