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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant to MIA 48 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 84, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model