4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model