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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model