4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to CIN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 36 for 13 yards (92-J.Denney; 55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model