Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Miami Dolphins 17

(:43) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 45 for 14 yards (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.37 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -2.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model