Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(13:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-40-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model