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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model