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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

MIN
32.7%
PHI
67.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.195 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.016 EPA/dropback
  • PHI defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIN

Tashawn Bower DE Out Ankle
Everson Griffen DE Out Knee
Trae Waynes CB Out Concussion
Marcus Sherels CB Out Ribs
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Hamstring

PHI

Derek Barnett DE Out Shoulder
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Corey Clement RB Questionable Quadricep
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
PHI 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:06 FG MIN (5:06) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 12:27 FG PHI (12:27) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. MIN 3 – PHI 3
  • Q2 04:24 TD MIN (4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – PHI 3
  • Q2 00:27 TD MIN (:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [77-M.Bennett]. Penalty on PHI-21-R.Darby, Defensive Holding, declined. MIN 16 – PHI 3
  • Q3 07:35 FG MIN (7:35) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 20 – PHI 3
  • Q3 03:00 FG PHI (3:00) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. MIN 20 – PHI 6
  • Q4 12:09 TD PHI (12:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 28-W.Smallwood for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – PHI 12
  • Q4 02:51 FG MIN (2:51) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 23 – PHI 14
  • Q4 01:15 TD PHI (1:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – PHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (8:43) 5-D.Bailey 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 91%

    (5:06) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:01) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to MIN 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:46) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to PHI 33, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

    (12:27) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%

    (6:57) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to MIN 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-B.Zylstra to MIN 44 for 9 yards (45-R.Lovato, 27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (7:35) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (3:00) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:27) 6-M.Wile punts 35 yards to PHI 34, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (12:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery ran ob at MIN 12 for 8 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

    (2:51) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.