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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery ran ob at MIN 12 for 8 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model