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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 5-D.Bailey 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP