Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(14:46) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to PHI 33, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model