4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 17 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.81 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -1.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP